Strat 101
I’ve compiled a number of information about playing in a Strat-o-matic league and how to create a good team.
Introduction to the Cards
Imagine the split instant between a pitcher and batter in a sandlot baseball game at the corner of the neighborhood. The pitcher eyes the batter, looking down at his catcher for the sign, deciding to himself whether to deceive or overpower the batter. The batter looks up at him, perfectly aware of the pitcher’s intentions, the way the pitcher tries to intimidate by throwing inside or upstairs, and how he mixes his pitchers to get him off-balance. Eventually the ball is delivered to the plate, and in that split instant, when the batter connects (or doesn’t), an outcome occurs, whether a single, homerun or double play grounder. For the pitcher or batter it’s just one instant–sometimes the batter fails and sits down, and other times he makes contact and rounds the bases in celebration. This batter-pitcher confrontation occurs repeatedly over the course of a baseball game. It is what baseball is made of–endless instances and the best players make the best of those individual instances.
It’s not a question of who fails or succeeds in a particular instant, but a question of who will fail or succeed more over the course of multiple instances.
The cards answer the second question: they indicate the players who will succeed or fail more often over the course of multiple pitcher-batter confrontations.
What Differentiates Strat-O-matic from Rotisserie (or Fantasy) Baseball?
Rotisserie baseball is speculation and based on predictions. In Rotisserie, you have no clear idea how a player will perform. Therefore, a player’s price can fluctuate from season to season. It’s all based on conjecture.
Strat-o-matic is based on actual percentages and results. Players are worth a certain value based on the card created by Strat-o-matic (give or take 5 dollars either way). Therefore, it is imperative that owners consider the percentages of the cards to determine the actual performance of the players they pay. Remember a player’s performance is based on percentages, not guarantees, but over a full season, the player with good percentages will perform better than a player with worse percentages?
How does it breakdown?
The split instant between a pitcher and batter according to Strat-o-matic is a mathematical anomaly–gaining the exact percentage of a particular outcome would probably take ten minutes to compute–because that split instant in real baseball is made-up of a combination of variables. Consider the following in each at bat:
The ballpark
Runners on base
The pitcher’s fatigue rating
The batter’s clutch percentage
The pitcher’s card
The batter’s card
The pitcher’s closing rating
The baserunners’ speed
The outfielders’ throwing arms
The infielders’ and outfielders’ defense
As you can see the variables involved are numerous and it is hard to truly compute on one unique at bat, but as an owner, it is important to draft players with the best percentages
What are the actual numbers involved?
The numbers are calculated by the roll of three dice.
The batter has a 50% chance (108 possible chances) of the roll landing on his card. The pitcher has a 50% chance (108 chances) of the roll landing on his card. So overall, there are a total of 216 chances with every batter-pitcher confrontation.
Therefore, how do you know the best players? By drafting players with the most possible chances with a positive outcome–walk, single, double, triple, homerun, hbp. The best batters have over 50 on-base chances against a side or 50 total bases against a side. In certain ballparks–these numbers could reach as high as 82 total bases per side or more.
The best way to understand this is to take a specific example:
A player like Ryan Klesko who hits righties very well might have over 90 total bases against right handers. If he faced, Kevin Brown who might have less than 20 total bases against lefties, the total percentage (without considering other variables) would be 110 total bases out of 216 chances. That is a 50% chance of getting at least a basehit, which is outstanding!
However if the same Ryan Klesko faced Randy Johnson, Ryan has 0 (that’s right zero!) total bases against lefthanders, and Johnson has less than 15 total bases against lefthanded batters, so this matchup would equal 15 total bases out of 216 chances. Let’s just say Ryan would get on base by a hit almost never!
In other words:
Batters with more than 50 on-base chances or 70 total bases against both sides are beasts!
Batters with more than 50 on-base chances or 70 total bases on one side are superstars against that side.
Batters with more than 40 on-base chances or 50 total bases are solid players. Anything less will result in occasional production for a team.
On the other side:
Pitchers with more than 25 on-base chances or 40 total bases against one side are to be avoided at all costs.
Pitchers who dominate one side–less than 20 on-base and 20 total bases against one side are solid players but not superstars.
Pitchers with less than 20 on-base chances and 25 total bases against both sides are superstars.
Asterisks
I’m sure you’ve heard it said about a certain player in baseball that when he gets on base, he puts lots of pressure on the pitcher. It’s Rickey Henderson in his prime. It’s hard to think of players these days that have as much of an impact on the pitcher when on base–perhaps the best examples is someone like Kenny Lofton. These types of players put pressure on the pitcher and force the defense to hold him on base. In Strat-o-matic, the asterisk appears near the steal rating. It indicates that the player when on base needs to be held by the infield.
These batters are important because they improve the current batter’s chance of getting a base hit. Normal outs becomes singles with players with asterisks on base. These asterisk players should bat at the top of the lineup –in the #1 and #2 holes because it makes a #3, #4 and #5 hitter even better. Another way to increase a batter’s overall chance of a positive outcome.
Triangles/Diamonds
In real baseball, there are certain batters who can hit a homerun regardless of the park in which they play. They are the ultimate sluggers in baseball. These players have so much power that it doesn’t matter where they play–whether Olympic Stadium or Coors Field, these players will help the ball out of the park.
Strat-o-matic designates these players with diamonds. Diamonds are gold on an already potent offensive card. It just makes a player even more offensive in a hitters’ ballpark. You don’t have to be the greatest hitter to have diamonds on a card–you just have to have demonstrated exceptional power over the season. Examples of players: Shane Andrews and Matt Luke in 1998. Though you wouldn’t expect them to deserve diamonds, they showed power to earn 7 to 8 diamonds against at least one side.
The Diamonds are determined by the likeliness of a homerun in a particular park (determined by the ballpark ratings). They are homeruns if the dice roll right. In Coors, there is a 95% of a homerun.
The Triangles are a smaller version of the diamonds. Instead of the outcome of a homerun, the batter will single where otherwise he would have been out. But most batters have 5 triangles against both sides. So in the end, diamonds have little impact. It just affects hitters who don’t single a lot–they receive 0 trianglesIn fact, Mark McGwire is penalized as a homerun hitter, and Strat takes away his singles to emphasize he’s purely power.
The triangles and diamonds are also on pitchers’ cards, and too many diamonds on a pitcher’s card are potential homeruns surrendered. The best pitchers have zero diamonds and zero triangles–a characteristic of a dominant pitcher.
Splits
A more detailed look at the cards will reveal that certain spots on the cards have split outcomes. These splits are Strat-o-matic’s attempt to have players replicate real life statistics. Splits minimize the potential of a player to get on base. Splits usually diminish the outcome of a better result. Players with straight HOMERUN spots on the card are the better players. In the long runs splits are computed like any other spot and are a detailed characteristic of the player cards. You benefit little knowing about splits.
How important is defense?
Similar to real baseball, having strong defense (2 or better) up the middle is the most important factor in assembling a team. The percentage of hits to second base, shortstop and centerfield are greater than to left and right fields and first and third base. Defense is not essential at the side positions if the offense outweighs the defense. In fact, a good offensive player will make up for even a 5 rating in the less crucial positions. The key factor of catcher is the throwing arm–not the range.
GB-A
Guys who ground into lots of double plays are trouble if you hope to score a bunch of runs. GB-A refers to the total chances on the card of a ground ball to the shortstop or second basemen to be turned into a double play. Obviously the beasts such as Moises Alou or Mark McGwire will bounce into double plays, but they also will produce too. It’s the players with lots of GB-A chances and whose offense is not as strong who will kill potential rallies. Be sure you keep an eye on this number–too many of these guys in the lineup could stifle your offense. High GB-A type players should bat low in the lineup at best.
Obviously GB-A pitchers are worth a lot, especially if they get lots of men on base. Forcing a double play is hard in Strat-o-matic but a double play or two can win a number of ballgames over the full season.
Limited AB Players
These are the types of players everyone should pay particular attention. Since Strat calculates players based on the percentage of a positive outcome relative to the number of ABs, the players with fewer than 450 ABS, and especially less than 150 ABS, who hit at all during those limited ABS, will have superstar percentages. It might seem unfair to know that Terry Shumpert is one of the best offensive players in the draft–considering his numbers are positive but don’t warrant the card Strat prepared for him. These part-time players are essential (also referred to as the Injection of Offense) to a championship team and will be superstars in a playoffs series–sometimes even better than the best players in the league. But of course these players only fill in part of the time, and do not guarantee a playoff spot. But they are trade bait down the stretch for contenders and playoff teams.
Clutch Percentages
Late in games and with men in scoring position, Start refers to these points in a game as clutch opportunities. Though they are like any other point in a game, Strat reduces the chance of a base hit for most players during these instances. Therefore, some players lose up to 10 to 15 chances in these situations. It’s best to make sure you #3, #4, and #5 hitters have positive clutch opportunities since they will often find themselves hitting in clutch situations in the late innings, and whether they have a better percentage during these moments may win several games over the season.
Starters vs. Closers vs. Relievers
Why pitchers are so hard to draft? Because the the numbers are not good indicators of success.
Here are several need-to-knows about pitchers:
You don’t need a top of the line closer to get saves.
Anybody with a decent closer rating and good numbers will records outs and earn saves.
Wins, loses, and ERA are insignificant. They are poor ways to judge a good pitcher. Focus on opponents’ batting average and ratio.
You need more than three good relievers–HAL (the computer manager will use up to five or six of them in the pen and everyone will play a role.)
Relievers who dominate one side and get whacked by the other side should be avoided.
Relievers who are strong against both sides are the best, especially when they are stronger against the opposite side.
Relievers who go only one inning are in danger of fatigue and blowing games. Try to get relievers with two innings at least.
Pay attention to homeruns allowed. It is extremely dangerous for relievers and starters in a good hitting parks.
Batters Who Hit Lefties
Batters who hit lefties are numerous through the league. It’s easy to pick them up late in a draft for cheap. They also only have to have approximately 200 ABS. It’s batters who hit righties that will be the most expensive. It’s foolish to spend a large sum on a player who dominates lefties. He will be wasted during the majority of his ABS unless he’s platooned, and then he’d be on the bench, only available to pinch hit. It is important to draft them, but it is not hard to trade for a strong hitter against lefties during the season.
Reverse Lefty Pitchers against Righties
It’s also not hard to find right handers who dominate left handed batters. But finding left handed pitchers who dominate righties are rare and will perform better over a full season. It forces switch hitters to hit against the pitcher’s strength. These pitchers are especially good as relievers and starters. Two good examples in 1999 were Omar Daal and Alan Embree.
Prospects
It is a risky step to draft prospects or half-time players who you expect to have a good year. They will only contribute so much during the current season and could possibly be traded for a better player if they perform well. But on the other hand, if the player doesn’t work out in real baseball, you spent extra money on a player who won’t offer your team any full time benefit and who you will be unable to deal. It’s smart for teams with lots of cheap players and cash to spend some money on prospects because if the prospects play well, a good team becomes championship quality.
